Old Dominion

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	78.0
Current RPI:	78
Expected SOS:	207
Current SOS:	207
Current Record:	25-7
Expected Record:	25-7
Current Conf Record:	16-4
Expected Conf Record:	16-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-0
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	95
Expected OOC SOS:	263

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
25-7	78.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Old Dominion.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Towson (153.0)	CAA	H	57-54	W	100%
11-13	James Madison (272.0)	CAA	A	53-69	W	100%
11-16	Temple (52.0)	Amer	N	76-65	L	0%
11-17	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	N	62-44	W	100%
11-19	Dayton (146.0)	A10	N	67-75	W	100%
11-25	William & Mary (94.0)	CAA	A	79-77	L	0%
11-27	Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)	MEAC	H	83-44	W	100%
12-2	VCU (135.0)	A10	A	82-75	L	0%
12-6	Richmond (176.0)	A10	H	79-60	W	100%
12-9	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	H	88-46	W	100%
12-17	Fairfield (180.0)	MAAC	A	77-82	W	100%
12-22	Norfolk St. (266.0)	MEAC	H	61-50	W	100%
12-30	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	89-58	W	100%
1-4	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	75-82	W	100%
1-6	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	60-63	W	100%
1-11	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	H	68-75	L	0%
1-13	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	H	82-76	W	100%
1-18	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	54-64	W	100%
1-20	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	A	62-73	W	100%
1-27	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	66-88	W	100%
2-1	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	59-66	L	0%
2-3	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	65-60	W	100%
2-8	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	A	63-68	W	100%
2-10	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	A	69-82	W	100%
2-15	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	H	100-62	W	100%
2-17	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	H	82-33	W	100%
2-22	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	79-84	W	100%
2-24	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	88-66	L	0%
3-1	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	H	69-64	W	100%
3-3	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	79-53	W	100%
3-8	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	N	62-58	W	100%
3-9	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	N	49-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Old Dominion's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Old Dominion's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Old Dominion.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Old Dominion	CUSA	26.23	26.23	78.57	78.57	14.99	14.99
Western Kentucky	CUSA	5.39	5.39	66.67	66.67	1.80	1.80
Marshall	CUSA	3.92	3.92	74.19	74.19	1.90	1.90
Charlotte	CUSA	3.84	3.84	19.23	19.23	-2.36	-2.36
FIU	CUSA	3.80	3.80	40.74	40.74	-0.70	-0.70
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	3.80	3.80	34.62	34.62	-1.17	-1.17
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	3.75	3.75	51.72	51.72	0.13	0.13
UAB	CUSA	2.43	2.43	60.00	60.00	0.49	0.49
Southern Miss	CUSA	2.33	2.33	41.38	41.38	-0.40	-0.40
North Texas	CUSA	2.32	2.32	44.83	44.83	-0.24	-0.24
UTSA	CUSA	2.31	2.31	55.17	55.17	0.24	0.24
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	2.30	2.30	75.86	75.86	1.19	1.19
Rice	CUSA	2.24	2.24	17.86	17.86	-1.44	-1.44
UTEP	CUSA	2.23	2.23	34.48	34.48	-0.69	-0.69
James Madison	CAA	1.83	1.83	30.00	30.00	-0.73	-0.73
Towson	CAA	1.75	1.75	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
William & Mary	CAA	1.74	1.74	57.14	57.14	0.25	0.25
VCU	A10	1.69	1.69	53.12	53.12	0.11	0.11
Richmond	A10	1.69	1.69	38.71	38.71	-0.38	-0.38
Indiana St.	MVC	1.66	1.66	39.29	39.29	-0.36	-0.36
Dayton	A10	1.66	1.66	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Norfolk St.	MEAC	1.64	1.64	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	1.61	1.61	17.24	17.24	-1.06	-1.06
Bowling Green	MAC	1.59	1.59	48.28	48.28	-0.05	-0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	1.56	1.56	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
Temple	Amer	1.56	1.56	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
College of Charleston	CAA	0.24	0.24	77.42	77.42	0.13	0.13
Elon	CAA	0.24	0.24	40.00	40.00	-0.05	-0.05
Drexel	CAA	0.23	0.23	37.50	37.50	-0.06	-0.06
George Mason	A10	0.22	0.22	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.22	0.22	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.19	0.19	31.25	31.25	-0.07	-0.07
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.19	0.19	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.18	0.18	60.00	60.00	0.04	0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.18	0.18	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Northeastern	CAA	0.16	0.16	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.16	0.16	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.15	0.15	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Davidson	A10	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.15	0.15	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.13	0.13	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.12	0.12	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Saint Louis	A10	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rhode Island	A10	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.10	0.10	74.19	74.19	0.05	0.05
Massachusetts	A10	0.10	0.10	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Belmont	OVC	0.10	0.10	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
SMU	Amer	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.09	0.09	82.35	82.35	0.06	0.06
Wright St.	Horz	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
High Point	BSth	0.08	0.08	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Bradley	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.08	0.08	84.38	84.38	0.05	0.05
South Alabama	SB	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
North Florida	ASun	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UCF	Amer	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.07	0.07	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	6.67	6.67	-0.05	-0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	22.22	22.22	-0.03	-0.03
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
New Hampshire	AE	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00